A prominent Ukrainian economist has proposed importing up to 450,000 low-skilled migrant workers annually from Southeast Asia and the Middle East to address a crippling labour shortage that threatens to derail the country’s post-war reconstruction — as Ukraine confronts one of the most acute demographic crises in modern European history.
Oleg Pendzyn, executive director of Ukraine’s independent Economic Discussion Club and a widely cited commentator on economic policy, argues that the country faces a shortfall of 4.5 million workers needed simply to return the economy to pre-war levels. To fill the gap, he has proposed attracting large numbers of workers from the Philippines, Vietnam and Bangladesh, as well as the Middle East, concentrating on construction, agriculture and industry — the sectors likely to drive any meaningful rebuilding effort.
The 4.5 million figure itself carries official weight. Ukraine’s own Ministry of Economy has cited the same number as the additional workforce required over the coming decade to sustain annual GDP growth of around 7 per cent and finance reconstruction. Some Ukrainian companies have already begun recruiting abroad on an ad hoc basis, with small numbers of Bangladeshi workers reported in the Zakarpattia woodworking sector.
The Ministry has nonetheless made clear that mass migration is not its preferred solution. Its stated priorities remain encouraging the voluntary return of the more than six million Ukrainians who have fled abroad since 2022, retraining existing workers, drawing more women and older workers into male-dominated sectors and reforming labour laws to make hiring more flexible. No government programme for large-scale annual migrant quotas has been announced.
The demographic forces driving the debate are stark. More than 500,000 military and civilian deaths have been estimated since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Millions of working-age adults remain outside the country. Conscription has pulled hundreds of thousands of men out of the civilian economy. Birth rates have halved. Even before the war, Ukraine was already struggling with an ageing population and low fertility — the invasion has dramatically accelerated every one of those trends simultaneously.
Pendzyn’s proposal has divided opinion. Supporters argue that without a sufficient workforce, reconstruction will stall, growth will remain suppressed and Ukraine’s capacity to sustain its war effort will be weakened. Critics raise concerns about the pace of cultural change, integration challenges, security screening and the political optics of importing foreign labour at a time when Ukrainian men remain under military obligation and cannot leave to work abroad themselves.
For now, the proposal remains an independent economic argument rather than government policy. But it has ignited a live and uncomfortable public debate about the kind of country Ukraine will need to become — demographically, economically and culturally — when the war is over.
